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☆ DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach warns that stocks are as 'overvalued' as early 2022
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

So there's a totally different valuation metric now," Gundlach said at the Exchange ETF conference. The prior bull market for stocks peaked about two years ago, with the S & P 500 hitting a record high on Jan. 3, 2022. .SPX 5Y mountain The S & P 500's previous bull market rally topped out in early 2022. Gundlach also said he would allocate 10% or so in real assets, such as gold. Gundlach has warned repeatedly that a soft landing or " goldilocks " outcome for the U.S. economy is unlikely.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, DoubleLine, Morgan Stanley, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Exchange ETF, CNBC, Tesla, Vanguard, Berkshire Locations: Japan, India, U.S

☆ The Fed's first rate cut won't happen until June after surprisingly cautious guidance from the central bank, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The first Fed rate cut probably isn't coming until June, according to Bank of America. Central bank chief Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes for a March rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Fed's first rate cut is now unlikely to come in March after the central bank struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to Bank of America. Investors still see an aggressive pace of rate cuts by the end of the year, despite lowered hopes for a March cut. AdvertisementExperts have warned that Fed rate cuts could be a double-edged sword for the economy, particularly if the Fed cuts interest rates rapidly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Jerome Powell's presser, aren't, Powell, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Fed

☆ Everyone is going bankrupt
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . WeWork, the real-estate company that cosplayed as a tech startup, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut one Wall Street veteran believes WeWork will be the first of many companies to succumb to a similar fate. 3 things in marketsANGELA WEISS / Getty ContributorCan the stock market keep this momentum going?

Persons: —, AFTRA, Tesla, Brooks Kraft, It's, WeWork, David Trainer, Jennifer Sor, Insider's Vishal Persaud, Katie Notopoulos, Adam Neumann, we've, ANGELA WEISS, Jeff Gundlach, OpenAI's, Google's Bard, Min, Uber, Travis Kalanick's, Matthew Tortoriello, Sherrod Brown, Malte Mueller, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, SAG, Hollywood, Tech, Google, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty, Wall, P, Bank of America, Wall Street, Nasdaq, ExxonMobil, Tesla, Apple, Brooks, Amazon, YouTube, NFL, News Corp, Sony Locations: French Montana, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried was just convicted. Where does crypto go from here?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Sam Bankman-Fried's conviction and what it means for the future of crypto. Sam Bankman-Fried, the crypto industry's most recognizable face (and head of hair), was found guilty of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy on Thursday night. Charges against Bankman-Fried included wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The conviction came, perhaps fittingly, on the first anniversary of the CoinDesk scoop that sent FTX, the crypto exchange Bankman-Fried co-founded and led, into a tailspin. The downfall was swift, with Bankman-Fried resigning as CEO and FTX collapsing just over a week after the initial report.

Persons: —, Katie Notopoulos —, Linda Yaccarino, Sam Bankman, Chelsea Jia Feng Down, Crypto, SBF, FTX, Fried, Katie Balevic, Jacob Shamsian, Katie, Chelsea Jia Feng, Miami —, That's, Brian Snyder Jamie Dimon, Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Mike Blake, Jack Dorsey, Samantha Lee, Janet Yallen, Sheryl Crow, Missy Elliott, isn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Bankman, Alameda Research, Wall, BlackRock, PayPal, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Tech, Financial, Labor Statistics, Hall, Today Locations: FTX's, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ All the signs are pointing to a recession that'll cost Americans their jobs, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach says: 'Layoffs are coming'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is clearly headed toward a recession, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach has warned. "The shape of the yield curve is extremely unstable at this time," Gundlach told CNBC's "Closing Bell". AdvertisementAdvertisementRecessions typically happen when the yield curve de-inverts after being inverted for around a year, Gundlach noted. The US Treasury bond curve inverted back in mid-2022, but has pared much of that move since the middle of this year. AdvertisementAdvertisement"I really believe that layoffs are coming," Gundlach told CNBC.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, —, Gundlach, CNBC's, what's, October's Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, US Treasury, Big Tech, CNBC

☆ Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach warns of a recession as markets roil: 'Buckle up'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"If the unemployment rate ticks up just a couple of tenths it will be recession alert," Gundlach wrote on X. AdvertisementAdvertisementBond-market turmoil could be a sign that a recession is on the way, Jeff Gundlach has warned. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach wrote in a post on X. That "should put everyone on recession warning, not just recession watch," he added. That's led to the gap in returns offered by 2- and 10-year Treasurys narrowing to just 33 basis points, for the tightest yield curve since late March.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle, —, That's, –, David Lebovitz Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, London School of Economics, JPMorgan

☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

☆ There's a signal flashing in the bond market that says a recession is coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a worrying signal in the bond market that suggests a recession could soon arrive. Investors have typically pointed to the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields as an indicator of a coming recession. The two-year yield surpassing that of the 10-year bond has been a signal that's preceded every economic slump since 1955. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security yields, which are adjusted for inflation, are currently hovering around 2.5%, Misra said. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach said in post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Priya Misra, That's, Misra, It's, Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Management, CNBC, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Brace for another Fed rate hike thanks to a 'problematic' surge in oil prices, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Expect another rate increase by the Fed at its next meeting due to a "problematic" surge in oil prices, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach said. "I think the probability of rate hikes is higher than what I thought before this oil spike happened," Gundlach said. Oil prices have climbed past $90 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia slashed production. "So I think the chance of a rate hike is higher because these oil prices are going to be a real problem," Gundlach said. Surging oil prices now threaten to spark a resurgence of US inflation, which the Fed has tried so hard to quell.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal, CNBC, Brent, US West Texas Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Wall, Silicon

☆ US consumer debt fears are overblown as borrowing slows and inflation cools, Moody's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers debt isn't as bad as many fear, according to Moody's chief economist. Mark Zandi highlighted that borrowing has moderated since the start of the year as inflation cools. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debts to rise. In a post on X, Mark Zandi shared a contrarian view to ongoing chatter about US consumer debt. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debt to rise much.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Jeff Gundlach, Zandi Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Hip-hop stars and financial luminaries: Ritholtz Wealth Management redesigns the investment conference
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Surf City USA —for a financial conference. A financial conference on a beach? Reinventing the financial conferenceWelcome to FutureProof, billed as "the largest gathering of top-tier wealth management professionals, CEOs, CTOs, COOs, and fast-growing financial advisors." It's the brainchild of Barry Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and CEO Josh Brown. "Coming out of the pandemic, it was obvious to us that the traditional financial conference was past its sell-by date," Ritholtz told me.

Persons: Tang, Redman, They're, Jeremy Siegel, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Emily Roland, John Hancock, Cliff Asness, Jeff Gundlach, maven Jan van Eck, Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Ritholtz, FutureProof, You'll, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RIAs, Dan Ives, Scott Wapner, Siegel, Morningstar, Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, Ben Johnson, podcasters Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, Wu, Tang Clan Organizations: Wharton, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Chiropractic, Health, Investment Advisors, CNBC, Financial Locations: Huntington Beach , CA, Huntington Beach , California, Surf, Huntington Beach, AQR, DoubleLine, FutureProof, COOs, Wells, Wedbush, Young

☆ The Fed just held interest rates and signaled future hikes at the same time – a move that baffled many. Here's how Larry Summers, Mohamed El-Erian, and others have reacted.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed pressed pause on its interest-rate increases this month after boosting borrowing costs 10 times since early 2022. The move spurred a wave of commentary given the central bank at once held rates and signaled more hikes. "It seems like the unanimity of opinion that we need more rate hikes has been clear, but the path of rate hikes is all over the place," he added. "It was what I would call, an awkward but hawkish pause," he added. Peter Schiff, chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital"Don't believe the hype on the Fed's hawkish pause on rates.

Persons: Larry Summers, Mohamed El, David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, —, Jerome Powell, Summers, Erian, Tom, Dick, Harry, " Rosenberg, Gundlach, Steve Forbes, Forbes, Don't, Richard Clarida, they've, they're, Clarida, Whitney Watson, Watson, Peter Schiff, Schiff Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Erian, Allianz, CNBC, Federal, Global, Goldman Sachs, Euro

☆ What's next for stocks partly depends on how much you believe the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The S & P ended at 4,372, exactly where it was at 2 PM when the Fed made its announcement. In English: I am not saying a soft landing is happening, but we could make it. The stock market certainly believes in the soft landing. The S & P is up nearly 5% this month alone on a belief the job market will remain strong and the Fed is done. But the S & P is up over 500 points (more than 13%) since bottoming at 3,855 on March 13th.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, doesn't, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jeffrey Yale Rubin, FOMO Organizations: Fed, Powell, Bulls, Birinyi Associates, American, of, Bears

☆ It's Wall Street vs Wall Street as the recession debate rages on. Here's what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach and 5 other experts have warned.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, —, Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States

☆ The top commentators in markets say the bank crisis isn't anywhere close to over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're looking at what some of Wall Street's top investors and commentators say has to happen to curb the banking tumult. The shuttered bank had disclosed in its first-quarter earnings report that customers pulled over $100 billion of deposits in three-months. But even if the regulator did insure more money, former FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams said Thursday a move like that would only cost banks' customers more. A stock market portfolio created by ChatGPT is outperforming the top UK investment funds. Stock market investors should keep an eye out for five key indicators with volatility set to ramp up through the end of the year.

☆ Red alert recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Matt Turner | Dave Smith | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

On the agenda today:But first: Everyone is back to talking about a recession. This week's dispatchFed Chair Jerome Powell Joshua Roberts/Reuters2023 started with fresh hope that the US could avoid a recession. That has big name investors and market signals predicting a recession, and soon. "Red alert recession signals," Gundlach said. Even Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.

☆ Soft, hard, or no landing at all: Here's what 5 Wall Street experts are saying about the fate of the US economy in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Here's what five Wall Street experts are saying about the fate of the economy this year. Here's what five Wall Street experts are saying about the fate of the economy this year. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEOJamie Dimon REUTERS/ Larry DowningA soft landing is possible, but markets are facing some "scary stuff" ahead, according to the JPMorgan boss. Kevin O'Leary, "Shark Tank" investorKevin O'Leary Mark Davis / Staff / Getty Images"Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary remained optimistic on the market in 2023, and made the case for a soft landing. "We may actually get what people keep saying is impossible … a soft landing.

☆ Stocks will suffer this year as a recession hits – but it could be time to load up on bonds, PIMCO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Equities have become less attractive amid higher interest rates and recession risk," strategists at the firm said. But the $1.7 trillion fixed-income giant is calling for investors to load up on bonds, which offer safer returns. "Equities have become less attractive amid higher interest rates and recession risk. Unlike stocks, bonds offer investors a fixed rate of return – which can prove more attractive in times of economic uncertainty. Read more: Watch the bond market and not the Fed for a steer on interest rates, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach says

☆ Don't snap up stocks just yet – but stay alert as the Fed could soon spark a rally by wrapping up its rate-hiking campaign, a JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors shouldn't pile into stocks yet — but should be ready to jump in, a JPMorgan strategist said. "We think they're close to wrapping it up, thank goodness," Phil Camporeale told CNBC Wednesday. Camporeale told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday. But the bank is readying itself for any potential Fed-fueled rally by snapping up call options on some S&P 500 stocks, Camporeale said. "Right now we're long some calls on the S&P," Camporeale told CNBC.

☆ US stocks stretch losing streak as China trade slump underscores recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Wednesday and were on track to extend a run of losses. A slump in Chinese trade in November highlighted global recession worries. Chinese trade figures released Wednesday underscored recession fears even as the world's second-largest economy continued to roll back its zero-COVID policy measures related to quarantines and testing. Official data released by the government showed exports in November contracted by 8.7% in November from a year earlier, the worst decline since February 2020 when the COVID outbreak was starting to spread worldwide. Here's what else is happening today:Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon sees just a 35% chance the Fed avoids a recession.

☆ Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach says he's buying Treasuries amid the worst bond rout in decades
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach on Tuesday noted a rally in the Treasury market and said he's been purchasing US debt. The 10-year yield fell Tuesday after hitting its highest level in 12 years. "The U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying tonight. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 3.813% after the yield on Monday rose above 3.9% for the first time since 2010. The iShares US Aggregate Bond ETF has tumbled 16% during 2022 and the global bond market has dropped into its first bear market in more than three decades.

☆ 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Mike Calia | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now, the federal funds rate is at 3% to 3.25%, the highest it's been in a little more than 14 years. He pointed to the differences in the yields between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes, also known as the yield curve. Some analysts and market players see a higher yield on shorter-term debt as a sign a recession is coming. Turmoil in RussiaAn activist participates in an unsanctioned protest at Arbat Street Sept. 21, 2022 in Moscow, Russia. In a virtual address to the UN, Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelenskyy called for a special tribunal that would punish Putin's government.

☆ US stocks fall after steep sell-off as investors assess outlook for more aggressive rate hikes to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's rate hike Wednesday was followed by rate hikes at other central banks. Other central banks including Switzerland and Norway followed suit with their own rate hikes as inflation burns hot throughout the global economy. The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50 basis points as inflation sits at 9.8%. US weekly jobless claims released Thursday rose slightly, by 5,000 to 213,000, but the labor market remains strong. Here's what else is happening today:"Bond King" Jeff Gundlach said the Fed's commitment to big rate hikes means a 75% chance of a US recession in 2023.

☆ 'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach says the Fed's devotion to big rate hikes means there's now a 75% chance of a US recession next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The hike is three times bigger than the Fed's typical rate rise and extends a streak of fast-paced increases. The US inflation rate cooled slightly in August to 8.3% year-on-year, but outstripped economists' expectations for an 8.1% print. The September hike is three times bigger than its typical rate rise and extends a streak of fast-paced increases. It brings the fed funds target rate to between 3.0% and 3.25%. The Fed expects the target rate to be just under 4.5% at year-end, according to its so-called dot plot of forecasts.

☆ How the Fed's tough talk translates into lower earnings and more pain for stock prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Both metrics for determining future stock prices (earnings estimates and the market multiple) could now move in a very wide "band". A wide range of outcomes implies more uncertainty, more volatility. For example, what is the right earnings estimate for the next twelve months for the S & P 500? "S & P 500 EPS estimates will likely be coming down at increasing rates in the weeks ahead," Nick Raich, who tracks corporate earnings at Earnings Scout, told me. 232 x 17 = 3,944 for the S & P 500, more than 150 points above where it is now.

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